←2026-05-21 · Herbert Simon
Analysis
Last night was destined to keep many traders staring at their screens. The close looked calm enough — the Dow surged 600+ points, the S&P and Nasdaq both gained, the Russell 2000 ripped 2.6% — but the real battle only began when the closing bell rang.
The one that "blood-crashed" after hours was Intuit. Down as much as 10% — if it holds into today's open, this will be its worst earnings day since 2015.
To be fair, the numbers weren't terrible: Q3 net revenue $8.56B, next-quarter adjusted EPS guidance midpoint $3.59, well above the $3.15 analyst consensus, plus a raised full-year revenue outlook. The problem was the "brand promise" — right after announcing 17% layoffs to go all-in on AI, they delivered this result. The market voted "no confidence" on the transformation story.
This is a loud warning shot for any company that hasn't yet shown AI in actual dollars.
With that warm-up done, the real star of the night takes the stage — Jensen Huang and his NVIDIA.
One word for Q1's report card: perfect.
| Metric | Actual | Wall Street Estimate | Beat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.87 | $1.75 | +$0.12 (+6.9%) |
| Revenue | $81.615B | $78.97B | +$2.65B |
| Revenue YoY | +85% | — | — |
| EPS YoY | +131% | — | — |
In plain English: NVIDIA beat Wall Street by $2 billion. After weeks of frantic upward revisions — estimates climbed from $70B all the way to $79B — Jensen still managed to print $81.6B. This isn't just a beat; it's building another floor on top of the ceiling.
Here's what confused newer investors: after numbers this explosive, the stock hovered around $220 after hours, even dipping slightly. Confusion everywhere.
That's actually the market working perfectly. Repeat this truth: nothing moves in a straight line.
The stock didn't spike because the prior pricing had already moved past "betting on the future" into "digesting reality." Here's the real kicker:
| Timing | Valuation |
|---|---|
| Pre-earnings (stock at $225) | TTM PE: 45× |
| Post-earnings (updated EPS) | TTM PE: 37× |
| Forward PE | 21× |
21× forward PE. Same level as Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. Given NVIDIA's compounding growth rate, this isn't just fair — it's practically lying on the floor.
As for the after-hours volatility? Classic volatility crush. It grinds you down, making the YOLO call buyers and the perma-bears both wrong no matter how they position. Once the speculative money gets washed out and shares change hands, today's open will tell the real story.
There was a quieter but more important story running yesterday — power stocks went parabolic.
| Stock | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | +7.9% | Data center direct-to-plant power deals |
| Vistra (VST) | +6.9% | PJM grid accelerating co-location plans |
The logic is ironclad: the PJM grid is fast-tracking "data center direct-to-power-plant" connectivity.
AI's ceiling is compute. Compute's ceiling is power. Whoever can deliver stable electricity to data centers fastest becomes the real "picks and shovels" play in the AI arms race.
This thread is worth tracking in your watchlist.
Retail staged a "fire and ice" split yesterday:
| Company | Performance | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| TJX (TJ Maxx parent) | +5.7%, raised guidance | Americans flooding discount stores |
| Target (TGT) | -4% | Comps +5.6% (3× expectations) but management warned on future quarters |
| Hasbro (HAS) | -8% | Revenue guidance at the low end of estimates — expectations gap kills |
One-line summary: The wealthy inflate, the poor deflate, the middle class keeps losing purchasing power.
Back to NVIDIA — the most important macro context is what most people keep missing. This is no longer a simple business transaction. It has escalated to great-power competition and national security. That means the market now has a cohort of buyers who are completely price-insensitive, rewriting the supply-demand equation entirely.
The "bubble" crowd is still looking at the wrong chessboard.
AI capex is real and it is happening. You can question the path, but don't question Jensen's money printer. NVIDIA today is a fully loaded freight train. Anyone who tries to pick up pennies in front of it ends up under the wheels.
For everyone who stayed up watching earnings last night — the real trade starts today.
Risk Disclaimer: The above is market commentary and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest accordingly.
Mentioned: NVIDIA (NVDA) · Intuit (INTU) · Target (TGT) · Constellation Energy (CEG)