Space Exploration Technologies Corp.NASDAQ:SPCX
Published 2026-08-05, with market data as of the 2026-08-04 close. All financials are sourced from SpaceX's first post-IPO quarterly report (Form 10-Q / 8-K earnings release, issued 2026-08-04, quarter ended 2026-06-30) and the S-1 prospectus.
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on 2026-06-12 at $135/share (market cap $1.77T), spiked to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, then fell steadily; on the August 4 earnings day it closed at $125.33 (+9.43%), 7.2% below the IPO price and -44.5% off the high. Q2'26 revenue was $7,814M (+92% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $3,538M (+192%), and the net loss narrowed to $541M — all beating estimates; but AI-segment capex of $15.8B (total capex $18.4B) far exceeded expectations and the stock fell nearly 9% after hours.
On August 6 (two trading days after earnings) SpaceX's unusual staggered lockup begins releasing about 911M shares (~20% of insider holdings), then 7% every two to three weeks; by December 8 (day 180) the float expands from ~4% to ~40%; Elon Musk's ~6.4B shares (Class B, 40%+ of the company) are separately locked for 366 days to 2027-06-12. We rate SPCX Overweight with Medium conviction and a 12-month target of $146 (+16.9% vs spot): the revenue explosion and loss-narrowing inflection are real, but lockup supply and ~-$25B of free cash flow (H1'26, calculated) cap near-term upside.
§01Investment Summary
SpaceX is torn between two opposing forces. On one side it is one of the fastest-growing public tech companies in history — Q2'26 revenue of $7,814M (+92% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $3,538M (+192%), Starlink at 12.0M subscribers, the AI segment annualizing above $10B with EBITDA turning positive — a genuine inflection. On the other side, the stock has halved from its post-IPO high in two months and trades 7.2% below the IPO price: $15.8B of single-quarter AI capex spooked the market, a staggered lockup starting August 6 pushes the float from 4% toward 40%, and short interest reached as high as ~32% of the float (S3). We cross-check three FY27E-revenue P/S scenarios (15/27/41x) to a probability-weighted 12-month target of $146.
Three reasons to be Overweight: (1) Q2'26 beat across the board (revenue +92%, adjusted EBITDA +192%, net loss -46%), with the AI segment's operating loss halving QoQ and adjusted EBITDA turning positive at +$1,146M — a genuine double inflection in revenue and losses; (2) Starlink is the only profitable segment (Q2'26 operating profit $1,656M, +79%), at 12.0M subscribers with enterprise/government revenue +108%, providing downside support; (3) crowded shorts (S3 puts them at ~32% of the float) plus explosive revenue growth means any beat can trigger a squeeze.
Three key risks: (1) the lockup wave starting Aug 6 — by Dec 8 the float grows from ~4% to ~40%, real supply pressure; (2) deeply negative free cash flow (H1'26 CFO $3,466M - capex $28,476M ≈ -$25,010M, calculated), with AI spending funded by IPO proceeds and debt (cash on hand $100B); (3) Starlink ARPU -22% YoY and Space segment H1 revenue -2% — deceleration in both mature businesses. This is also why we set our target well below the $223 street consensus.
§02Price and Street View
On earnings day Aug 4, SPCX surged 9.43% to close at $125.33, its best single-day gain in a month — the market first cheered the revenue beat and narrower losses; but after hours, AI capex of $15.8B (Street expected $13.2B total) drove the stock down nearly 9% to $115.98. The 'up first, then sold off' pattern of the session captures all of the market's ambivalence about this company: the growth is real, and so is the cash
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