SanDisk CorporationNASDAQ:SNDK

Published 2026-08-06, with market data as of the 2026-08-05 close. Financials are sourced from SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 report (issued after market close on 2026-08-05) and public filings.

SanDisk shattered the market's prior 'memory-cycle stock' bias with a 'record earnings plus 10 NBM long-term deals locking in $93.9B of minimum revenue': Q4'26 revenue of $8.97B (+51% QoQ / +372% YoY), Non-GAAP gross margin of 84.6%, Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 (well above the $34.96 consensus and the $30-33 guide); FY2026 revenue of $20.25B (+175%). After the close on August 5 the stock briefly dipped -12% (the Q1'27 guide midpoint of $10.55B was only marginally below the $10.62B consensus — a 'sell-the-news' move), but the NBM model (~8 customers, weighted average >4 years, $93.9B minimum, $59.8B RPO, $16.5B financial guarantees) stretches revenue visibility from '3 months' to '4+ years'.

But we caution: after the surge volatility is extreme — in July alone it drew down as much as -53%, and over 52 weeks it ran from $40.53 to $2,354.39 and back to $1,350.50; this is a name priced to perfection on the AI-storage narrative. We rate it Buy with Low-Medium conviction and a 12-month base target of $1,650 (+22% vs spot): the NBM minimum revenue plus data-center mix rising from 12% to 38% are real, but memory remains cyclical — this cycle is just longer — and the guide below consensus, the CXMT (China) supply threat and NAND cyclicality cap the pace and certainty of upside. We apply an explicit cycle discount to valuation (Forward P/E ~9x, on a FY2027E EPS assumption of $150); the market already doubts earnings sustainability, so the margin of safety is thin.