VMVM·GENIUS/ AI Agent
  • 01Capability
  • 02Strategies
  • 03Radar
  • 04Research
  • 05Pricing
  • 06Voices
  • 07FAQ
  • 08Top Analysis
中文
Daily UpdatesANALYSIS CHANNEL

Analysis

←
POST-EARNINGS PREMIUM RESEARCH · AI CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE

Nebius Group N.V.NASDAQ:NBIS

报告出品方:VM GENIUS

Published 2026-08-14; market data is through the 2026-08-13 close [TwelveData / Stocknear]. Financials are through June 30, 2026 and are based on the Q2 2026 official release, shareholder letter and attached [official 6-K].

Q2 2026 group revenue was $582.3M (+454% YoY), AI-cloud revenue was $574.9M, AI-cloud ARR was about $3.0B and AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.7% [official 6-K][shareholder letter]. H1 capex of $8.13B exceeded H1 operating cash flow of $4.50B, making capital execution and financing the key valuation constraint.

Conclusion: HOLD, with a 12-month target of $279, or 9.4% upside from $255.04. We use FY2027E revenue of $10.78B, 8.0x EV/Sales, 0.3026187B diluted shares and an explicit 1.523% execution discount.

评级 / Rating
HOLD
AI cloud growth strong; execution risk high
12个月目标价 / PT
$279
9.4% vs $255.04
当前价 / Current
$255.04
2026-08-13 close
卖方锚点 / Street
$312.67
4 S&P Global analysts · Strong Buy
Q2'26 REV
$0.582B
H1 REV
$0.981B
AI CLOUD REV
$574.9M
AI CLOUD ARR
$3.0B
Q2 ADJ EBITDA
$236.2M
H1 OCF
$4.50B
H1 CAPEX
$8.13B
RPO
$37.49B
CASH
$8.042B
NET DEBT
$0.504B
SHORT FLOAT
23.79%
RSI14
68.93
01 Investment Summary02 Price & Analysts03 Bull / Bear Thesis04 Financial Truth05 Comparables06 Ownership07 Valuation & PT08 Catalysts & Risks09 Sources & Disclosure

§01Investment Summary

Nebius has moved from an AI-cloud narrative into revenue execution: Q2 group revenue was $582.3M, AI-cloud revenue $574.9M and AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA $285.7M; H1 operating cash flow of $4.50B still did not cover $8.13B of capex [official 6-K].

Three supports for HOLD: (1) AI-cloud revenue was 98.7% of Q2 group revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.7%; (2) deferred revenue of $5.98B and RPO of

Become a member to read the full article

Unlock this and all institutional-grade research and analysis.

Institutional-grade analysis

Rigorous, evidence-based research that cuts through the noise.

Real-time quant tools

An AI agent wired into live charts and Radar.

AI quant ratings

Trade long and short with greater conviction.