Nebius Group N.V.NASDAQ:NBIS
Published 2026-08-14; market data is through the 2026-08-13 close [TwelveData / Stocknear]. Financials are through June 30, 2026 and are based on the Q2 2026 official release, shareholder letter and attached [official 6-K].
Q2 2026 group revenue was $582.3M (+454% YoY), AI-cloud revenue was $574.9M, AI-cloud ARR was about $3.0B and AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.7% [official 6-K][shareholder letter]. H1 capex of $8.13B exceeded H1 operating cash flow of $4.50B, making capital execution and financing the key valuation constraint.
Conclusion: HOLD, with a 12-month target of $279, or 9.4% upside from $255.04. We use FY2027E revenue of $10.78B, 8.0x EV/Sales, 0.3026187B diluted shares and an explicit 1.523% execution discount.
§01Investment Summary
Nebius has moved from an AI-cloud narrative into revenue execution: Q2 group revenue was $582.3M, AI-cloud revenue $574.9M and AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA $285.7M; H1 operating cash flow of $4.50B still did not cover $8.13B of capex [official 6-K].
Three supports for HOLD: (1) AI-cloud revenue was 98.7% of Q2 group revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.7%; (2) deferred revenue of $5.98B and RPO of
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