分析
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Week Ahead Market Outlook. We’re wrapping up the key catalysts on deck for next week—from the headline Fed rate decision to Salesforce’s flagship event—to help you position around potential market movers.
Volatility Watch: Implied volatility in Amazon (AMZN) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) options ticked noticeably higher over the past week. Based on 14-day RSI, the top overbought names include TJGC Group, Cascadia Minerals, and Private Bancorp of America; top oversold names include EverCommerce and Burlington Stores. Meanwhile, short interest remains elevated in Vital Farms (VITL) and Hims & Hers (HIMS).
Conferences on Deck: Key industry gatherings this week include the Baird Global Healthcare Conference, BMO Technology Media Telecommunications Conference, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Services Conference, and Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference.
Ex-Dividend Watch: Heavyweights going ex-dividend next week include FedEx (FDX), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Altria (MO), and Coca-Cola (KO).
IPO Pipeline: Companies expected to price and begin trading include Holtec Nuclear and Orion180 Insurance.
Earnings: Headliner reporting earnings: Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY).
All-Day Events: The International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) World Conference continues. Key pharma players presenting abstracts or trial data include AbbVie (ABBV), Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM), and BioNTech (BNTX).
Corporate Actions:
Kraft Heinz (KHC) begins trading on the NYSE following its transfer from Nasdaq.
Payoneer Global (PAYO) shareholders vote on the proposed buyout by Nuvei. As of press time, PAYO trades at a 3.6% discount to the deal price.
Earnings: Notable reports on tap include Trip.com (TCTM) and Forgent Power.
Capitol Hill Testimonies: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify at the House Financial Services Committee’s annual hearing.
Gaming Launch: Marvel’s Wolverine officially hits shelves, launched by Disney’s Marvel as a Sony PlayStation 5 exclusive.
Investor Days & Spinoffs: Corteva holds an Investor Day to outline the spinoff of its advanced seeds and genetics unit into a separately listed pure-play, Vylor. Other key investor events include Workiva, Ingram Micro Capital Markets Day, and Harmonic.
Credit Metrics: American Express (AXP), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citigroup (C), Bread Financial (BFH), Capital One (COF), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) are slated to release monthly delinquency and charge-off metrics.
Earnings: Top earnings report: Lennar (LEN).
8:30 AM ET: The US Census Bureau releases the August Retail Sales report.
1:00 PM ET: Analyst and investor events kick off for ON Semiconductor (ON), Oscar Health (OSCR), Koppers (KOP), and Salesforce (CRM).
2:00 PM ET: The Federal Reserve delivers its interest rate decision. Fed Funds futures are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 bps rate hike.
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference.
4:00 PM ET: Salesforce hosts its dedicated Investor & Analyst Meeting during Dreamforce.
All-Day Events:
The SEC hosts a public roundtable on prepping for 24-hour trading. Participants include NYSE (ICE), Nasdaq, Cboe Global Markets, Robinhood (HOOD), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), BlackRock (BLK), Virtu Financial (VIRT), Citadel Securities, Jane Street, DTCC, and FINRA.
Key investor events include Intuit (INTU) Investor Day, Ashland Innovation Day, Amer Sports Investor Day, HubSpot (HUBS) Investor Day, Yeti Holdings Investor Day, and Brinker International (EAT) Investor Day.
The FOMC blackout period officially lifts.
7:00 AM ET: The Bank of England announces its policy rate decision.
Triple Witching: Markets face potential volatility surges due to Triple Witching—the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index options contracts.
M&A Vote: Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) shareholders vote on the proposed acquisition by Zymeworks (ZYME). As of press time, TBPH trades at a slight premium to the implied deal value.