What is Netflix's (NFLX) current rating and price target?

VM Genius rates NFLX Buy with a 12-month price target of $88. The stock trades at $67.63 (Jul 17 close), implying +30.1% upside. Consensus across 50 analysts is Buy with an average PT of $104 (range $70-$135). The stock has fallen below every analyst target.

How did Netflix perform in Q2 2026?

Q2 2026 revenue was $12.56B (+13.4% YoY), operating margin 33.4%, diluted EPS $0.80 (vs $0.79 consensus, a $0.01 beat), and net income $3.40B, with double-digit growth in all four regions. Yet the stock fell about 9% because Q3 guidance came in modestly below consensus (revenue $12.86B vs ~$13B, EPS $0.82 vs $0.84).

Why Buy instead of Hold?

At $67.63 the stock is below the lowest analyst target of $70, and its forward P/E is just 17.9x (FY27E EPS $3.77), a multi-year low. Operating margin has expanded four years running (20.6% -> 31.5%E), free cash flow is growing, ad revenue is doubling toward $3B in 2026, and a $27.1B buyback authorization is shrinking the count at a low price. The market is mispricing a cyclical deceleration as a structural break.

What are Netflix's key risks?

(1) Another Q3 guide below consensus; (2) content spend accelerating and pressuring FCF (Q2 content additions +28%, single-quarter FCF -32.7% YoY); (3) a further FY margin-guide cut; (4) elevated rates or a Fed hike weighing on the long-duration multiple; (5) view hours up only 2% in the first half reviving member-value doubts.

How is the price target derived?

A four-path cross-check: P/E path (FY27E EPS $3.77 × 24x = $90.5, 35% weight), EV/EBITDA path (FY26E EBITDA $16.5B × 22x minus net debt = $86.0, 25%), FCF-yield path ($82.3, 20%), and a Street-PT haircut ($92, 20%), weighting to $88.0. The Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113 scenarios weight to $87.25, consistent with the target.

What is Netflix's (NFLX) current rating and price target?

VM Genius rates NFLX Buy with a 12-month price target of $88. The stock trades at $67.63 (Jul 17 close), implying +30.1% upside. Consensus across 50 analysts is Buy with an average PT of $104 (range $70-$135). The stock has fallen below every analyst target.

How did Netflix perform in Q2 2026?

Q2 2026 revenue was $12.56B (+13.4% YoY), operating margin 33.4%, diluted EPS $0.80 (vs $0.79 consensus, a $0.01 beat), and net income $3.40B, with double-digit growth in all four regions. Yet the stock fell about 9% because Q3 guidance came in modestly below consensus (revenue $12.86B vs ~$13B, EPS $0.82 vs $0.84).

Why Buy instead of Hold?

At $67.63 the stock is below the lowest analyst target of $70, and its forward P/E is just 17.9x (FY27E EPS $3.77), a multi-year low. Operating margin has expanded four years running (20.6% -> 31.5%E), free cash flow is growing, ad revenue is doubling toward $3B in 2026, and a $27.1B buyback authorization is shrinking the count at a low price. The market is mispricing a cyclical deceleration as a structural break.

What are Netflix's key risks?

(1) Another Q3 guide below consensus; (2) content spend accelerating and pressuring FCF (Q2 content additions +28%, single-quarter FCF -32.7% YoY); (3) a further FY margin-guide cut; (4) elevated rates or a Fed hike weighing on the long-duration multiple; (5) view hours up only 2% in the first half reviving member-value doubts.

How is the price target derived?

A four-path cross-check: P/E path (FY27E EPS $3.77 × 24x = $90.5, 35% weight), EV/EBITDA path (FY26E EBITDA $16.5B × 22x minus net debt = $86.0, 25%), FCF-yield path ($82.3, 20%), and a Street-PT haircut ($92, 20%), weighting to $88.0. The Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113 scenarios weight to $87.25, consistent with the target.

Post-earnings deep dive · Communication Services · Streaming leader

Netflix, Inc.NASDAQ:NFLX

Produced by: VM Genius

Published 2026-07-19, with market data as of the 2026-07-17 close. All figures are sourced from Netflix's official Q2 2026 report (Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-17) and its earnings call.

Netflix is the only streaming company consistently profitable at global scale: Q2 revenue $12.56B (+13.4% YoY), a 33.4% operating margin, $0.80 EPS, and double-digit growth across all four regions.

But after the July 16 print, softer-than-expected Q3 guidance sent the stock down about 9% to $67.63 — below every analyst target (the lowest is $70). We rate it Buy, with a 12-month target of $88, about 30% above the current price.

Rating

Buy

Confidence: Medium

12-Month Price Target

$88

+30.1% vs $67.63

Current Price

$67.63

Jul 17 close · MCap $281.6B

Street Consensus

$104

Buy · range $70-$135

Q2'26 Rev

$12.56B

Q2'26 Op Margin

33.4%

Q2'26 EPS

$0.80

Fwd P/E (FY27E)

17.9x

52W Range

$67.63-$127.75

Net Debt

$5.21B

Inst. Own.

80.5%

10Y UST

4.55%

§01Investment Summary

For Netflix, the core question today is not whether streaming can still grow, but what multiple the market should pay for it — a scaled streaming leader that has decelerated from hypergrowth to steady double digits while its profitability keeps structurally improving. We cross-check four methods — P/E, EV/EBITDA, free-cash-flow yield, and a haircut to Street targets — to a 12-month price target of $88. The sell-off was triggered only by Q3 guidance modestly below expectations, not by a break in fundamentals.

Conclusion: Buy, medium conviction. At $67.63 the stock is below every analyst target (the lowest is $70), and its 17.9x forward P/E sits at a multi-year low.

Four reasons to buy: operating margin has risen four years running (20.6% toward this year's 31.5% goal); free cash flow keeps expanding; ad revenue should roughly double to the $3B level in 2026; and the company is buying back shares at a record $4.7B in a single quarter while the price is low.

Three main risks: slowing growth; content spend accelerating and squeezing near-term free cash flow; and elevated rates weighing on the multiple of a long-duration grower.

图 1：NFLX 关键价格锚点，现价 $67.63 已跌破前 52 周低点 $70.86。 — Figure 1: NFLX key price anchors; spot $67.63 has broken below the prior 52-week low of $70.86.

Figure 1: NFLX key price anchors; spot $67.63 has broken below the prior 52-week low of $70.86.

§02Price and Street View

Metric	Value	Source / Note
Current price	$67.63	MotleyFool / TradingKey · Jul 17 close
Market cap	$281.6B	67.63 x 4,163.94M shares (10-Q)
Shares outstanding	4,163.94M	10-Q cover (post 10-for-1 split, 2025-11-14)
52W range	$67.63-$127.75	Yahoo/Robinhood · spot broke prior low $70.86
Analyst PT	$70 / $104 / $135	Low / Avg / High · S&P Global / Benzinga
Recommendation split	37 / 12 / 1	Buy / Hold / Sell · 50 analysts
Post-earnings reaction	-9%	Jul 16 AH -8%, Jul 17 intraday -12.2%

图 7：分析师目标价区间 $70-$135，现价 $67.63 低于全部目标价。 — Figure 7: Analyst target range $70-$135; spot $67.63 sits below every target.

Figure 7: Analyst target range $70-$135; spot $67.63 sits below every target.

§03Bull/Bear View

Bull: the only profitable-at-scale streaming pure-play, plus an ads second curve

Netflix is the only streaming pure-play that is consistently profitable at global scale: operating margin has risen from 20.6% to this year's 31.5% target over four years, while the streaming arms of Disney, WBD, Paramount, and Comcast are only just turning profitable or still losing money. Ad revenue set to roughly double to the $3B level in 2026 gives the company a second growth curve, and a $27.1B buyback authorization keeps repurchasing shares at a low price.

Bear: the deceleration is real; content spend and rates are hard constraints

Ex-FX, revenue growth has slowed from 12% in Q2 to 11% in the Q3 guide; the full-year operating-margin guide of 31.5% is also below Q2's 33.4% (a heavier back-half content slate). Content spend rose 28% YoY in Q2, pushing single-quarter operating cash flow down 28%. View hours grew only 2% in the first half, raising questions about member value. As a long-duration grower, a 4.55% 10-year Treasury yield and possible hikes together cap the multiple.

Our differentiated view: the market is mispricing a cyclical slowdown as a structural collapse. The Q3 guide is only about 1% light on revenue and $0.02 on EPS — a matter of cadence, not a trend reversal — yet the stock has fallen about 47% from its 52-week high, compressing the valuation to a 17.9x forward P/E. With revenue still growing +13%, free cash flow expanding, and the largest buyback in company history underway, an 18x multiple implies near-stall growth, clearly at odds with the company's +12–14% actual guide.

§04Financial Truth

Q2 revenue was $12.56B (+13.4% YoY), operating income $4.19B (+11.1%), operating margin 33.4%, net income $3.40B, and diluted EPS $0.80 (vs $0.72 a year ago), with all four regions growing double digits.

Operating cash flow was $1.74B (-28% YoY) and free cash flow $1.53B. The single-quarter softness comes mainly from content additions rising 28% YoY (to $4.93B) — a matter of investment timing, not weaker cash generation; first-half operating cash flow actually grew.

One valuation-critical one-time item deserves a separate note: of the $2.90B in first-half 'other income,' about $2.85B fell in Q1, mostly a $2.8B break-up fee after the failed WBD acquisition — Netflix signed on 2025-12-04 to buy WBD's streaming and studio businesses, and WBD unilaterally terminated on 2026-02-27 and paid the fee. It inflated FY26 GAAP EPS, so we anchor valuation on the cleaner FY27E EPS of $3.77.

Metric	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026E
Revenue	$33.72B	$39.00B	$45.18B	$51.2B (guide)
Operating margin	20.6%	26.7%	29.5%	31.5% (guide)
Net income	$5.41B	$8.71B	$10.98B	n/a

Q2 2026 ($, 10-Q)	Value	YoY
Revenue	$12,559,938K	+13.4%
Operating income	$4,192,610K	+11.1%
Net income	$3,401,414K	+8.8%
Diluted EPS	$0.80	+11.1%
Operating cash flow	$1,743,812K	-28.0%
Free cash flow	$1,525,168K	-32.7%

图 2：年度营收与营业利润，规模与盈利同步扩张。 — Figure 2: Annual revenue and operating income; scale and profit expand together.

Figure 2: Annual revenue and operating income; scale and profit expand together.

图 3a：营业利润率四年连升（年度口径），20.6% → 31.5%E，是与减速叙事相反的一面。 — Figure 3a: Four straight years of operating-margin expansion (annual), 20.6% -> 31.5%E — the counterweight to the deceleration narrative.

Figure 3a: Four straight years of operating-margin expansion (annual), 20.6% -> 31.5%E — the counterweight to the deceleration narrative.

图 3b：换季度与半年口径看另一面 —— Q2'26 营业利润率 33.4% 同比降 0.7pp，全年指引 31.5% 隐含下半年回落至约 30%。年度上升与单季/下半年回落并存。 — Figure 3b: The quarterly & half-year view of the other side — Q2'26 operating margin 33.4% is down 0.7pp YoY, and the 31.5% FY guide implies H2 easing to ~30%. The annual uptrend and the quarterly/H2 give-back coexist.

Figure 3b: The quarterly & half-year view of the other side — Q2'26 operating margin 33.4% is down 0.7pp YoY, and the 31.5% FY guide implies H2 easing to ~30%. The annual uptrend and the quarterly/H2 give-back coexist.

图 4：内容投入加速（+28%）压制单季自由现金流。 — Figure 4: Content-spend acceleration (+28%) pressures single-quarter free cash flow.

Figure 4: Content-spend acceleration (+28%) pressures single-quarter free cash flow.

图 6：Q2'26 分地区营收，四地区全部双位数增长，LATAM +21.2% 领涨。 — Figure 6: Q2'26 revenue by region; all four grew double digits, led by LATAM at +21.2%.

Figure 6: Q2'26 revenue by region; all four grew double digits, led by LATAM at +21.2%.

§05Peer Comparables

Netflix has no perfect peer: Disney and Comcast are conglomerates spanning media plus parks or broadband, WBD and Paramount pair content with declining linear TV, and Spotify is music streaming. The key difference is profitability: latest-quarter streaming operating profit was $582M at Disney+/Hulu, $438M at WBD, and $251M at Paramount+, while Peacock still lost $432M — versus Netflix's company-wide operating profit of $4.19B at a 33.4% margin. Netflix's $281.6B market cap is about 1.6x the next-largest peer, Disney ($173.1B), and roughly 65% of the other five combined ($435.7B), which supports a multiple above legacy media and near the pure-streaming band.

Company	Mkt Cap	EV/EBITDA	Streaming profit (latest Q)
NFLX	$281.6B	~20x	Company operating profit $4.19B / 33.4%
DIS	$173.1B	n/a	Disney+/Hulu +$582M (+88%)
SPOT	$100.0B	n/a	Music streaming, profitable
CMCSA	$84.2B	4.3x	Peacock still lost -$432M
WBD	$68.0B	6.6x	+$438M (+29%) · being acquired by PSKY
PSKY	$10.4B	13x	Paramount+ +$251M

图 5：同业市值，NFLX 是流媒体唯一规模化盈利专业公司。 — Figure 5: Peer market cap; NFLX is the only profitable-at-scale streaming pure-play.

Figure 5: Peer market cap; NFLX is the only profitable-at-scale streaming pure-play.

图 10：EV/EBITDA，NFLX 溢价于传统媒体，接近纯流媒体倍数。 — Figure 10: EV/EBITDA; NFLX at a premium to legacy media and near the pure-streaming multiple.

Figure 10: EV/EBITDA; NFLX at a premium to legacy media and near the pure-streaming multiple.

§06Ownership

Per Fintel, Netflix has 3,642 institutional (13F/13D) holders, together owning about 3.35B shares, or roughly 80.5%; the top ten include Vanguard, BlackRock, FMR, State Street, Geode, Capital World, T Rowe Price, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citadel. Q1'26 activity was mixed (some trims), but the overall framing is 'institutions net-buying while executives sell.'

Two layers need to be separated: executives are indeed personal net sellers, but whether their Form 4 sales fall under a pre-set 10b5-1 plan is not publicly disclosed, so they should not be read as a bearish signal before that is confirmed. Meanwhile the company itself is buying back shares at $4.7B a quarter — a genuine buyer, moving opposite to individual insider sales.

图 9：股东结构快照，机构持有 80.5%；其他为 100% - 80.5% 计算值。 — Figure 9: Ownership snapshot; institutions hold 80.5%, with other calculated as 100% - 80.5%.

Figure 9: Ownership snapshot; institutions hold 80.5%, with other calculated as 100% - 80.5%.

§07Valuation and Price Target

Method	Formula	PT	Weight
P/E path	FY27E EPS $3.77 × 24x	$90.5	35%
EV/EBITDA path	(FY26E EBITDA $16.5B × 22x - net debt $5.21B) / 4,163.94M	$86.0	25%
FCF yield path	FY27E FCF ~$12B / 3.5% target yield / 4,163.94M	$82.3	20%
Street PT check	Post-earnings consensus $104, haircut to $92	$92	20%
Weighted PT	0.35×90.5 + 0.25×86.0 + 0.20×82.3 + 0.20×92	$88.0	100%

We land the weighted result of the four methods at a 12-month price target of $88 (+30.1% vs spot). We anchor on FY27E EPS of $3.77 rather than the FY26 GAAP figure, to strip out the one-time gain from the $2.8B WBD break-up fee in Q1. The three scenarios — Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113 at 25/50/25 probabilities — weight to $87.25, essentially in line with the $88 target (0.9% apart); with the bull case $113 above spot and the bear case $56 below it, the rating and scenarios are self-consistent. In bridging from enterprise value to equity we count only $9.10B of corporate cash and $14.31B of total debt (net debt $5.21B).

图 11：各方法估值区间对照。P/E、EV/EBITDA、FCF 三行是我们用不同方法测算出的估值区间；Street PT 是分析师目标价的真实分布区间（$70–$135）。 — Figure 11: Valuation ranges by method. The P/E, EV/EBITDA and FCF rows are our own estimated ranges under different methods; Street PT is the actual spread of analyst targets ($70–$135).

Figure 11: Valuation ranges by method. The P/E, EV/EBITDA and FCF rows are our own estimated ranges under different methods; Street PT is the actual spread of analyst targets ($70–$135).

图 12：情景概率，Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113，加权 $87.25。 — Figure 12: Scenario probabilities, Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113, weighted $87.25.

Figure 12: Scenario probabilities, Bear $56 / Base $90 / Bull $113, weighted $87.25.

§08Catalysts and Risks

Date / Window	Event	Direction
Late 2026-07	FOMC + SEP	Rate path and hike-tail risk affect the long-duration multiple
2026-08 to 2026-09	Ad upfronts / ad-tech stack / content slate	Ad ramp helps; stalling view hours hurt
~Mid 2026-10	Q3'26 earnings	Decisive: validate revenue >= the $12.86B guide, no FY-margin cut, ad progress

Key risks:
(1) another Q3 guide below consensus (see the roughly -9% reaction to this print);
(2) content spend keeps accelerating and full-year free cash flow misses;
(3) the full-year operating-margin guide is cut further (below 31%);
(4) the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 4.80%, or the Fed hikes, pressuring the long-duration multiple;
(5) view hours stall and revive doubts about member value.

Upside risk: if Q3 growth reaccelerates and ad revenue tops $3B, the multiple could return to 30x, mapping to the $113 bull case.

§09Sources, Limits and Disclosure

Netflix Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-07-17, period ended 2026-06-30): income statement / segments / cash flow / balance sheet / buyback / WBD break-up fee (Note 6)
Netflix Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (guidance, ads, addressable market, view hours)
Price and post-earnings reaction: MotleyFool / CNBC / HollywoodReporter / TradingKey (2026-07-16/17)
Analyst ratings and consensus: S&P Global / Benzinga / MarketBeat (Jul 2026); FY27E EPS $3.77 from S&P Global
Multi-year financials: Netflix 8-K FY2023/24/25; peer market cap and EV/EBITDA: companiesmarketcap / Yahoo / company disclosures (Jul 2026)
Institutional ownership: Fintel NFLX public page; rates: AdvisorPerspectives / Federal Reserve H.15 (2026-07-17)

Limitations: ch01 uses real price anchors rather than a weekly curve (no verified OHLC series, so no illustrative price chart is drawn); FY27E EPS / FY26E EBITDA / FY27E FCF are consensus or author estimates; beta, short-interest %, the options IV term structure, and insider 10b5-1 classification had no public source and were not fabricated; peer EV/EBITDA figures come from various sources and may carry timing differences versus the latest price. This report is not investment advice.